财经问题研究

研究气候风险对经济社会的影响是防控风险事件发生与蔓延的重要议题。本文基于生产网络视角，以2005年1月—2023年12月31个申万一级行业为样本，采用包含行业间投入产出关联的异质性空间自回归（HSAR）模型，实证检验气候风险对中国行业尾部风险的直接效应和网络效应。研究结果显示：转型风险和物理风险均能加剧中国行业尾部风险，其中，生产网络是气候风险影响中国行业尾部风险的重要渠道，由生产网络带来的网络效应占总效应的比重超过40%，且该结论在经过内生性检验和稳健性检验后仍然成立；在转型风险和物理风险影响下，社会服务和基础化工行业受到的网络效应影响最为显著；相较于前向关联，后向关联下中国行业尾部风险受到的网络效应更强；在两类风险中，转型风险对中国行业尾部风险的影响占主导地位。本文为中国有效防范气候风险、精准把握生产网络的风险传导特征提供了实证支持。

Currently, China is increasingly confronted with severe climate risks. Understanding the socioeconomic impacts of these risks is crucial for mitigating and managing the manifestation and contagion of risk events. Climate risks, encompassing both physical and transition risks, are continuously propagating adverse shocks from ecosystems to the broader economic system. Empirical evidence indicates that climate risks have inflicted significant damage across various Chinese sectors. These impacts entail both direct shocks and indirect ripple effects within the economic system, heavily driven by the underlying production networks. Therefore, overlooking production networks may substantially underestimate the true economic consequences of climate risks. However, existing literature rarely examines the economic consequences of climate risks from a macro-sectoral perspective. Specifically, there is a lack of research exploring the impact of climate risks on sectoral tail risks in China, particularly regarding the transmission mechanisms embedded in production networks. To address this gap, this paper constructs a Heterogeneous Spatial Autoregressive(HSAR) model incorporating inter-sectoral input-output linkages. From a production network perspective, we measure both the direct and network effects of climate risks on sectoral tail risks in China. We compare the heterogeneous impacts of physical and transition risks, and further investigate their primary transmission directions along the supply chain by incorporating forward and backward sectoral linkages.The results indicate that: First, increases in both physical and transition risks significantly exacerbate sectoral tail risks, with network effects driven by inter-sectoral input-output linkages accounting for over 40% of the total impact. Second, both risk types propagate through the production network, driving up tail risks across all sectors. Notably, the social services and basic chemical sectors experience the most pronounced network effects. Third, the network effects are stronger through backward linkages than forward linkages, indicating that climate risks are primarily transmitted from upstream to downstream sectors along the supply chain. Fourth, between the two risk types, transition risks exert a dominant impact on sectoral tail risks in China.This paper makes several contributions to the existing literature. First, it enriches the study of the economic consequences of climate risks at the sectoral level by focusing on tail risks and examining heterogeneous impacts across sectors. Second, it provides a comprehensive assessment by dual-dimensionally incorporating both physical and transition risks. Third, by adopting a production network perspective, the paper disentangles the direct and network effects of climate risks and identifies their primary transmission directions. Ultimately, this study provides empirical evidence and actionable insights for policymakers to effectively mitigate climate risks and manage risk contagion within production networks. These findings are of great significance for enhancing China's economic resilience and ensuring macroeconomic stability.insights for policymakers to effectively mitigate climate risks and manage risk contagion within production networks.