财经问题研究

在中央和各级地方政府的共同努力下，中国居民消费水平持续提升，但居民消费率仍有待提升，居民尤其是城镇居民消费倾向有待提高，居民消费信心和消费意愿有待增强，因而如何进一步提振居民消费是“十五五”时期的重要议题。中国居民消费不足的原因在于，居民消费不仅面临短期因素的影响，还面临长期潜在经济增速放缓等长期性因素和社会保障体系不健全、收入分配结构不合理等结构性因素的阻碍，以及高质量产品和服务供给不足、消费环境不佳的影响。西方宏观政策理论对长期经济增长和宏观经济结构问题的关注不足，难以为提振中国居民消费提供有效对策。宏观政策“三策合一”理论实现了对西方宏观政策理论的突破，能够设计出适合中国的居民消费长效机制。第一，宏观政策“三策合一”理论能够解决西方宏观政策理论所忽视的长期潜在经济增速放缓问题，通过提升长期潜在经济增速来持续提高居民可支配收入，助力居民“能消费”。第二，宏观政策“三策合一”理论能够解决西方宏观政策理论所忽视的结构性问题，消除结构性问题对居民消费的阻碍，助力居民尤其是中低收入群体“敢消费”。第三，宏观政策“三策合一”理论能够解决西方宏观政策理论所忽视的供给侧问题，提升高质量产品和服务的供需匹配程度，助力居民尤其是高收入群体“愿消费”。

With the joint efforts of the central and local governments, household consumption has improved to a certain extent. However, there is still insufficient household consumption, mainly reflected in the low consumption rate, low consumption propensity, and low consumption confidence of the resident sector. This study finds that the reason why China has long been in a state of insufficient household consumption is that household consumption is not only affected by short-term adverse factors but also hindered by long-term and structural factors, such as the slowdown of economic growth momentum and economic structural imbalance. First, with the slowdown of economic growth, the growth rate of residents' income has continued to slow down, making some residents “unable to consume”. Second, structural factors such as the imperfect social security system and the imbalance in the income distribution structure have made some residents, especially middle and low income groups,“ dare not consume”. Third, the insufficient supply of high-quality products and services, coupled with an unsatisfactory household consumption environment, has led to prominent problems of mismatch between supply and demand, making some residents “unwilling to consume”.Western macroeconomic policy theories are not only difficult to cope with the obstacles to household consumption caused by long-term problems such as the slowdown of long-term potential growth and the imbalance of income distribution structure but also hard to optimize the quality of products and services from the supply side. Therefore, it is difficult to provide targeted suggestions for boosting China's consumption. In contrast, the macro-policy trinity theory derived from China's policy practice not only focuses on short-term regulation but also incorporates long-term growth and economic structure into the analytical framework, making it more suitable for providing theoretical support for the construction of a long-term mechanism for China's household consumption. The results of this study show that through the macro-policy trinity theory, we can increase the long-term potential growth rate, continuously improve residents' disposable income, and better help residents “be able to consume”; improve the social security system and income distribution structure, eliminate residents' worries, and better help residents, especially middle and low income groups “dare to consume”; and improve the quality of products and services, solve the problem of supply-demand mismatch, and better help residents, especially high-income groups, “be willing to consume”. Thus, a long-term mechanism can be designed to encourage residents to “be able to consume”, “dare to consume”, and “be willing to consume”.