财经问题研究

在全球地缘政治博弈加剧和国内经济转型升级的关键节点，如何突破传统要素红利消退的瓶颈以实现利用外资稳增长，是亟待解决的重大现实问题。本文立足于新质生产力理论，构建包含“要素升级、空间重构、绿色转型”的分析框架，系统阐释新质生产力驱动外资稳规模、扩增量的微观机理。本文利用2006—2022年中国省级面板数据及自主构建的新质生产力指数，采用双向固定效应模型实证检验了新质生产力对外资吸引力的影响及作用机制。本文发现：新质生产力能够增强区域对外资的吸引力，且该结论在经过一系列内生性检验和稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验结果表明，技术创新和绿色转型构成了新质生产力吸引外资的两条关键传导路径。异质性分析结果表明，新质生产力的稳外资效应存在显著的区域梯度差异和环境门槛特征：新质生产力的稳外资效应仅发生在东部地区；且该效应高度依赖于数字普惠金融与制度型环境的协同支撑，仅在高水平环境下得以充分释放。本文结论为理解中国式现代化进程中的外资演进规律提供了新视角，并为构建“因地制宜、分类施策”的高质量引资政策体系提供了经验证据。

This study constructs a two-dimensional analytical framework to examine the interaction between new quality productive forces and foreign investment stability, exploring whether and how these forces can reshape China's attractiveness to foreign investment through factor quality enhancement and structural restructuring, thereby transitioning from “factor dividends” to “productivity dividends”. Based on theoretical foundations, the paper transcends conventional “factor determinism” by categorizing labor into traditional and digital labor, capital into physical and data capital, and innovatively measures provincial-level new quality productive forces indices using machine learning methodologies. Empirical analysis reveals three key findings. First, the development level of new quality productive forces significantly enhances foreign investment stability. This conclusion remains valid after accounting for time lags, excluding anti-globalization interference, and conducting robustness tests. Second, the mechanism verification confirms a dual-path mediating effect: new quality productive forces not only elevate factor endowments through technological leaps but also align with global green investment trends via green transformation. Third, regional heterogeneity is pronounced. Eastern regions demonstrate varying marginal effects of new quality productive forces on foreign investment stability due to differences in technological spillovers, industrial synergy advantages, digital inclusive finance development levels, and the establishment of free trade pilot zones. Compared to existing literature, this paper makes three key contributions. First, in theoretical innovation, it breaks through the limitations of conventional “factor determinism” by constructing a three-dimensional analytical framework of “factor upgrading,spatial restructuring,green development”, revealing the underlying mechanisms by which new quality productive forces reshape foreign investment attractiveness. Second, methodologically, it pioneers the integration of entropy analysis with the transcendental log production function to measure provincial new quality productive forces indices, providing a methodological reference for quantitative research in this field. Third, in terms of research perspective, it situates the “stabilize foreign investment” issue within the strategic context of national competitive advantage restructuring, exploring a symbiotic path between cultivating new quality productive forces and high-quality utilization of foreign investment. The study not only provides theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the practical effect of developing new quality productive forces from the perspective of stabilize foreign investment, but also inspires new ideas and provides differentiated policy toolbox for how to better achieve the strategic goal of stabilize foreign investment, reconstruct new advantages in international competition and realize high-quality utilization of foreign investment in the new development stage and under the new situation.