财经问题研究

在全球产业链供应链加速重构的背景下，中国企业的海外投资（以下简称“出海”）决策正经历深刻的调整和转型。本文基于上市公司及其海外子公司微观数据，探究全球变局下中国企业出海的趋势、逻辑和路径。研究发现：受贸易摩擦等因素影响，中国企业的出海方式由侧重产品出口的轻资产模式向侧重海外投资建厂的重资产模式过渡，出海目的地由成熟市场向新兴市场转移，出海主体由品牌商延伸到配套商；中国企业在全球产业链的嵌入程度会影响其出海逻辑，表现为链主企业战略性布局、高嵌入型企业跟随式响应和低嵌入型企业适应性调整；中国企业的出海路径在汽车、家电和电子产业依次体现出谨慎布局、多点扩张和大规模转移的渐进式路径。因此，加强对外开放和国际合作、推动新兴市场开拓与本地协同、推进海外全链条能力建设、强化出口与内销的联动机制是中国未来“走出去”战略制定的重要考量因素。本文为把握中国企业出海新动向和提升产业链供应链韧性提供了经验依据和政策启示。

In recent years, the logic of global industrial division has shifted from “efficiency first” to “balancing efficiency and security”. This shift has led to more regionalized, localized, and nearshored global supply chains, which has had a profound impact on the international expansion strategies of Chinese firms. Therefore, identifying the new characteristics of Chinese firms' overseas expansion and comparing their trends, motivations, and paths with other multinational firms hold significant practical value.This paper utilizes data from the CSMAR database covering Chinese listed firms and their overseas subsidiaries during 2010-2023 to explore the overall investment scale, the spatial distribution of key destination countries, and the expansion patterns of major industries. Based on these stylized facts, this paper further explores the evolving trends, motivations, and pathways of Chinese firms' overseas expansion.The findings of this paper are as follows. First, in response to trade frictions and other external shocks, Chinese firms exhibit new trends. Specifically, the mode of expansion is shifting from the export-oriented “light mode” to the investment-oriented “heavy mode”. Target destination countries are transitioning from mature markets in Europe and North America toward emerging economies in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Meanwhile, the range of players is extending beyond brand owners to supporting upstream and downstream manufacturers. Second, amid the macro-level shift in the global industrial division, Chinese firms face trade-offs between economic efficiency and supply chain security. Their motivations for going global vary depending on their positions within the global supply chain(GVC): leading firms pursue strategic layouts; highly embedded firms often adopt a follower strategy; while less embedded firms primarily engage in adaptive adjustments. Third, the pace and scope of overseas expansion vary across industries and firm types. At the industry level, Chinese firms in the automotive, home appliance, and electronics sectors tend to follow a gradual path—from cautious entry to multi-point expansion, and ultimately to large-scale relocation. These industries exhibit variations in the geographic breadth of their overseas layout and their capacity to withstand external shocks. At the firm level, large firms are more inclined toward proactive international strategies, whereas small and medium-sized firms tend to expand passively in response to external pressures.This paper contributes to understanding the evolving dynamics of Chinese firms' global expansion and offers policy implications for strengthening the resilience of supply chains. To enhance firms' ability to withstand global risks, the government should continue to support high-level opening-up and international cooperation, promote emerging market development and local integration, advance end-to-end overseas capacity building, and reinforce the coordination between export and domestic sales systems.