财经问题研究

在全球气候治理加速推进与中国“双碳”战略纵深推进的背景下，迅猛发展的数字服务贸易尤其是数字服务进口贸易为制造业绿色转型提供了重要的契机和助力。本文基于增加值视角，以2012—2021年EORA26全球供应链数据库中中国与其他国家双边贸易进出口总额排名前90位国家为样本，采用其投入产出及环境卫星账户数据，测算中国制造业绿色全球价值链水平，并采用双向固定效应模型实证检验数字服务进口贸易对中国制造业绿色全球价值链水平的影响及作用机制。研究发现：数字服务进口贸易能够提升中国制造业绿色全球价值链水平，且该结论在经过内生性检验和稳健性检验后仍然成立；数字服务进口贸易通过提高技术创新能力、人力资本密度和环境规制强度提升中国制造业绿色全球价值链水平；产业结构调整能够正向调节数字服务进口贸易对中国制造业绿色全球价值链水平的提升作用；数字服务进口贸易对中国制造业绿色全球价值链水平的提升作用在低技术行业，计算机与信息服务、商业、电信服务，其他商业服务，个人文化和娱乐服务中显著。本文研究对进一步探讨数字服务进口贸易的绿色发展效应具有重要参考意义。

Driven by global climate governance and China's “dual-carbon” strategy, the green and low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry has become a crucial aspect of high-quality development. Digital service imports, with their inherent technology spillover and factor allocation functions, provide new opportunities for restructuring the green value chain in manufacturing. However, existing research on measuring green global value chains remains underdeveloped, and the theoretical linkage and empirical evidence between digital service imports and the green value chain in manufacturing require further exploration. This paper systematically examines the impact, mechanisms, and heterogeneity of digital service import trade on the green value chain level of China's manufacturing industry.Based on the EORA26 database, this study selects input-output data and environmental satellite accounts from China and 90 major trading partners from 2012 to 2021, constructing a green value chain accounting framework from a value-added perspective. A two-way fixed effects model is applied for baseline regression, with instrumental variable estimation and alternative core variable methods used for endogeneity and robustness tests. The empirical findings are as follows. First, digital service import trade significantly enhances the green value chain level of China's manufacturing industry, a conclusion that remains valid after endogeneity and robustness tests. Second, mechanism analyses reveal that technological innovation, human capital accumulation, and environmental regulation intensity serve as key transmission pathways, with all three playing significant mediating roles. Third, industrial structure adjustment exerts a positive moderating effect on the relationship between digital service imports and the green value chain in manufacturing. Fourth, heterogeneity analyses indicate that the impact of digital service import trade varies significantly across manufacturing industries with different technology intensities, as well as across different digital service sectors.Compared with existing studies, the marginal contributions of this study are as follows. First, it employs the import penetration rate of services to measure the impact of digital service imports on China's manufacturing industry, offering greater credibility than using aggregate trade data alone. Second, it provides an in-depth theoretical analysis and empirically examines the mediating roles of technological innovation, human capital, and environmental regulation. Third, considering data timeliness and the need to measure embodied carbon emissions in China's export trade, this study innovatively utilizes the EORA26 database, which includes environmental satellite accounts across 90 countries, to decompose China's domestic value added in manufacturing exports from a value-added perspective. The findings reveal the underlying logic between digital service imports and the green value chain in manufacturing. The government should implement differentiated policy support continuously expand the opening up of digital service imports.